Pathways towards India's nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy

Abstract India's emission mitigation policy, as reflected in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), focuses on two energy sector related variables- share of non-fossil sources in the electricity generation sector, and emission intensity of India's GDP. We undertake a scenario-based uncertainty assessment to understand if there is room to enhance the mitigation ambition of India's energy sector related NDC targets and inform long-term decarbonisation. We find that while there is room to enhance ambition on the electricity sector mitigation target, some key uncertainties related specifically to the industrial sector need to be better understood before enhancing ambition on the emission intensity reduction front. We highlight that renewable energy integration cost and decarbonisation of industrial energy use are going to be key challenges for India's long-term decarbonisation strategy, and that electricity sector reforms in India are going to be critical to address both these challenges. Finally, we conclude by highlighting that India could demonstrate leadership by taking additional burden for the world by adopting a peaking year for its power sector emissions as a part of its Mid-Century Strategy.