A Model for Electric Vehicle Charging Load Forecasting based on Simulated Driving Path

With the replacement of power sources of traditional vehicles, the penetration of EVs in the world is increasing year by year. When large-scale EVs are connected to the power grid, it will affect the structure and power flow of the grid. This paper simulates the vehicle route in the planning area, proposes a method to predict the probability distribution method for the users to choose the specific route based on the Markov process theory and the traffic network database. Refer to the habits and charging preferences of EV users, taking private EVs as the research object, Monte Carlo simulation is used to predict the charging demand generated by EVs in the function area and important road nodes in the planned area. In view of the difference of peak price and valley price, considering the low valley-time price, the probability of load transfer is large. Changing the discharge strategy to realize the peak load shifting in V2V mode.