Descriptores ecológicos y efecto del cambio climático en la aptitud ambiental de Leucaena leucocephala (Lam.) de Wit

The objective of the study was to estimate the potential alterations in the areas with environmental aptitude (AA) and to establish the ecological descriptors for L. leucocephala; with the MaxEnt model and based on 19 bioclimatic variables and one edaphic, the distribution niche was modeled for the periods 1960-1990, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. The climatic data were obtained from the Global Climate Data portal of WorldClim and worked with raster and ascii images with a resolution of 30 seconds of arc. For future climatologist, the general circulation model (MCG) was considered: GFDL-CM3 with two representative greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The results showed that for the reference climate (1960-1990), the area with AA for the species is 251 134 Km², and it is located in the coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Sierra Madre Oriental, Occidental and del Sur, Sierra Norte of Puebla, Isthmus of Tehuantepec and part of the Yucatan Peninsula, and the environmental variables that contribute most to explain the distribution of the species are: photoperiod, precipitation of the wettest month, average temperature of the coldest month, accumulated precipitation from May to October and the average temperature from November to April. Regarding future climate scenarios, the projections are for a substantial increase in the area with AA, the 51 to 72 % for the RCP 8.5 and 4.5, respectively. Regarding the ecological descriptors of L. leucocephala, the environmental distribution ranges are wide, both for variables related to temperature and variables related to precipitation.