Interdependent Infrastructure Interventions Optimization: an Integrative Systems Thinking Approach

Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference(2020)

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摘要
Despite widespread attention for the governance of infrastructures and improvements of the way infrastructure assets are maintained, the interdependency of infrastructures is not often considered from a systemic maintenance and renovation perspective. In this context, the issue of unforeseen intervention delays is of particular relevance because its impact on cost and hindrance might be too costly for infrastructure operators. Building upon the 3C concept (Centralize, Cluster, and Calculate) for intervention scheduling and optimization, this paper investigates the effect of unforeseen intervention delays on the intervention costs and the corresponding closure cost of the affected interdependent systems. A stochastic approach has been proposed to deal with the uncertainty of such delays. Uncertain intervention times are combined by Monte Carlo simulations to obtain the probabilistic distribution of the total cost at the end of the timeline of an intervention program affecting multiple interdependent infrastructures. Also, the change in the statistical deviation over time of the total cost with respect to the planned (optimal) cost during the entire program is obtained. This analysis yields interesting conclusions, such as the need for specific mitigation plans conducted during the course of the program to reduce the cost generated by the cumulative delays, and the need for enhanced communication between infrastructure managers, which could bring significant (economic) benefits to all stakeholders by jointly planning their intervention activities.
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