Spatial Patterns of Snow Distribution for Improved Earth System Modelling in the Arctic

Abstract. The spatial distribution of snow plays a vital role in Arctic climate, hydrology, and ecology due to its fundamental influence on the water balance, thermal regimes, vegetation, and carbon flux. However, for earth system modelling, the spatial distribution of snow is not well understood, and therefore, it is not well modeled, which can lead to substantial uncertainties in snow cover representations. To capture key hydro-ecological controls on snow spatial distribution, we carried out intensive field studies over multiple years for two small (2017–2019, ~2.5 km2) sub-Arctic study sites located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Using an intensive suite of field observations (> 22,000 data points), we developed simple models of spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) using factors such as topographic characteristics, vegetation characteristics based on greenness (normalized different vegetation index, NDVI), and a simple metric for approximating winds. The most successful model was the random forest using both study sites and all years, which was able to accurately capture the complexity and variability of snow characteristics across the sites. Approximately 86 % of the SWE distribution could be accounted for, on average, by the random forest model at the study sites. Factors that impacted year-to-year snow distribution included NDVI, elevation, and a metric to represent coarse microtopography (topographic position index, or TPI), while slope, wind, and fine microtopography factors were less important. The models were used to predict SWE at the locations through the study area and for all years. The characterization of the SWE spatial distribution patterns and the statistical relationships developed between SWE and its impacting factors will be used for the improvement of snow distribution modelling in the Department of Energy’s earth system model, and to improve understanding of hydrology, topography, and vegetation dynamics in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions of the globe.