Forecasting the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation

This chapter analyzes a specific possible proliferant, Taiwan, using a general predictive model of foreign policy. It focuses on bureaucratic infighting or on structural models of the international system. The chapter presents an approach that combines elements of each, taking seriously international constraints and domestic politics. Nuclear proliferation is one area of foreign policy to which this model can be applied. Taiwan’s nuclear research program is monitored closely by the United Nations and the United States. The objective behind the close monitoring is to prevent the development of nuclear weapons. The monotonicity theorem provides a basis for predicting when policy debates are expected to produce negotiated settlements or are expected to lead to an escalation of friction between competing interests. Nuclear proliferation poses a complex nexus of issues. Most immediate is whether a country will develop a nuclear weapons capability.