Spatial Distribution of Mortality for Heart Failure in Brazil, 1996-2017

Background: Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, and is associated with the high use of resources and healthcare costs. In Brazil, the HF prevalence is around 2 million patients, and its incidence is of approximately 240,000 new cases per year. Objective: The present investigation aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal trend of mortality caused by HF in Brazil, from 1996 to 2017. Methods: This is an ecological study developed with secondary data on HF mortality in Brazil. During the period, 1,242,014 cases of death caused by heart failure were analyzed. The existence of spatial autocorrelation of cases was calculated using the Global Moran Index (GMI) and, when significant, the Local Moran Index, considering p<0.05. The relative risk of the clusters was calculated. Results: The mortality rate due to HF was diversified in all Brazilian regions, with an emphasis in the South, Southeast, and Northeast. The GMI indicated positive spatial autocorrelation (p=0.01) in all periods. Municipalities located in the South, Southeast, Northeast, and Midwest showed a higher Relative Risk for mortality from HF, and most municipalities in the North were classified as a protective factor against this cause of death. Conclusions: The study showed a decline in mortality rates across the national territory. The highest concentration of mortality rates is in the North and Northeast regions, highlighting priority vulnerable areas in the planning and controlling strategies of health services.