Multi-objective centralization-decentralization trade-off analysis for multi-source renewable electricity generation expansion planning: A case study of Iran

Countries need robust long-term plans to keep up with the global pace of transitioning from pollutant fossil fuels towards clean, renewable energies. Renewable energy generation expansion plans can be either centralized, decentralized, or a combination of these two. This paper presents a novel approach to obtain an optimal multi-period plan for generating each type of renewable energy (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and biomass) via multi-objective mathematical modeling. The proposed model has integrated with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) econometric method to forecast the country's demand during the planning horizon. The optimal energy mix based on several socio-economic aspects of renewable sources was obtained using the Passive and Active Compensability Multicriteria ANalysis (PACMAN) multi-attribute decision-making method. The model has been solved by a Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) metaheuristic algorithm. Each solution in the Pareto front contains a plan for each electricity generation region under a certain combination of centralization and decentralization strategies.