Prostate volume prediction on MRI: tools, accuracy and variability

Objective A reliable estimation of prostate volume (PV) is essential to prostate cancer management. The objective of our multi-rater study was to compare intra- and inter-rater variability of PV from manual planimetry and ellipsoid formulas. Methods Forty treatment-naive patients who underwent prostate MRI were selected from a local database. PV and corresponding PSA density (PSAd) were estimated on 3D T2-weighted MRI (3 T) by 7 independent radiologists using the traditional ellipsoid formula (TEF), the newer biproximate ellipsoid formula (BPEF), and the manual planimetry method (MPM) used as ground truth. Intra- and inter-rater variability was calculated using the mixed model–based intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Results Mean volumes were 67.00 (± 36.61), 66.07 (± 35.03), and 64.77 (± 38.27) cm 3 with the TEF, BPEF, and MPM methods, respectively. Both TEF and BPEF overestimated PV relative to MPM, with the former presenting significant differences (+ 1.91 cm 3 , IQ = [− 0.33 cm 3 , 5.07 cm 3 ], p val = 0.03). Both intra- (ICC > 0.90) and inter-rater (ICC > 0.90) reproducibility were excellent. MPM had the highest inter-rater reproducibility (ICC = 0.999). Inter-rater PV variation led to discrepancies in classification according to the clinical criterion of PSAd > 0.15 ng/mL for 2 patients (5%), 7 patients (17.5%), and 9 patients (22.5%) when using MPM, TEF, and BPEF, respectively. Conclusion PV measurements using ellipsoid formulas and MPM are highly reproducible. MPM is a robust method for PV assessment and PSAd calculation, with the lowest variability. TEF showed a high degree of concordance with MPM but a slight overestimation of PV. Precise anatomic landmarks as defined with the BPEF led to a more accurate PV estimation, but also to a higher variability. Key Points • Manual planimetry used for prostate volume estimation is robust and reproducible, with the lowest variability between readers. • Ellipsoid formulas are accurate and reproducible but with higher variability between readers. • The traditional ellipsoid formula tends to overestimate prostate volume.