The rise and fall of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the emergence of competing Omicron lineages

In late December of 2019, high throughput sequencing technologies enabled rapid identification of SARS-CoV-2 as the etiological agent of COVID-19, and global sequencing efforts are now a critical tool for monitoring the ongoing spread and evolution of this virus. Here, we analyze a subset (n=83,204) of all publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genomes (n=~5.6 million) that were randomly selected, but equally distributed over the course of the pandemic. We plot the emergence and extinction of new variants of concern (VOCs) over time and show how this corresponds to the ongoing accumulation of mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genomes and individual proteins. While the accumulation of mutations generally follows a linear regression, non-synonymous mutations are significantly greater in Omicron viruses than in previous variants–especially in the spike and nucleoproteins–and these differences are more pronounced in a recently identified sub-lineage (BA.2) of Omicron.