Global burden of primary liver cancer by five etiologies and global prediction by 2035 based on global burden of disease study 2019

Background Using data from the global burden of disease (GBD) between 1990 and 2019 to report the leading etiological factors and hazards for liver cancer by HBV (LCHB), HCV (LCHC), alcoholic use (LCAL), NASH (LCNA), and other causes (LCOT). Method The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) in different districts, sex, and age are used to quantify the change of etiologies of liver cancer. Age-period-cohort models were performed to predict the primary liver cancer incidence and case numbers. Results Based on the GBD database of the whole world for the five etiologies of liver cancer in 2019, the percentage of incidence of LCAL, LCHB, LCHC, LCNA, and LCOT are 18.4%, 41%, 28.5%, 6.8%, and 5.3%, respectively. Fiver etiologies of liver cancer show gender differences, with LCHB and LCAL being more prevalent in men, and LCHC, LCNA being more prevalent in women. Besides, live cancer of males is because of alcohol using and smoking, while the reason of liver cancer of females is drug use, high BMI and high fasting plasma glucose. Interestingly, the incidence of LCHC in women over 85 years old, LCNA in women over 75 years old, and LCOT in women over 75 years old were all higher than that in men. According to the future prediction, the incidence rate of liver cancer itself, as well as the five causes of liver cancer, tends to decrease gradually after 2019, while the incidence rate of LCNA in males will continue to increase until 2025. Conclusions The incidence of liver cancer has been increasing and its major causes vary considerably at global, regional, or national levels, also vary by gender and age group.