Soil water stress overrides the benefit of water-use efficiency from rising CO2 and temperature in a cold semi-arid poplar plantation

The counteractive effect of atmospheric CO2 (c(a)) enrichment and drought stress on tree growth results in great uncertainty in the growth patterns of forest plantations in cold semi-arid regions. We analysed tree ring chronologies and carbon isotopes in Populus simonii plantations in cold semi-arid areas in northern China over the past four decades. We hypothesized that the hydraulic stress from drought would override the stimulating effect of increasing c(a) and temperature (T) on stem growth (basal area increment [BAI]). We found the stimulating effect of rising c(a) and T on the growth, indicated by continuous increase of intrinsic water-use efficiency in all stands and a positive correlation between T and BAI. However, these effects failed to alleviate the negative impacts of drought on tree growth. Concurrent acceleration of BAI reversed during the intensive drought episodes. Water stress resulted from inaccessibility of roots to deep soil water rather than from lack of precipitation, suggested by the decoupling of BAI from precipitation and vapour pressure deficit. Local soil water limitation might also cause greater stomatal regulation in declining trees, indicated by lower intercellular CO2 concentration. Thus, site-specific soil moisture conditions growth sensitivity to global warming resulting in site-specific decline episodes in drought-prone areas.