The right place at the right time: Advanced off-ball metrics for exploiting an opponent’s spatial weaknesses in soccer

What should we do to win the next match? This is the most important question a coach can ask to a game analyst. The answer to this question is, however, much more complex to solve than to formulate. In the recent years, the fast-growing field of soccer analytics has been able to provide novel approaches for solving more specific aspects of the game such as evaluating the quality of observed shots and passes [1,2,3,4], estimating the expected value of potential unobserved actions [5], measuring space control and creation [6,7,8], and even assessing the mental pressure of players according to match demands [9]. While these approaches address isolated aspects of the game, most can serve as useful building blocks for solving the more demanding practical questions from coaches in a more comprehensive way. Here, we focus on a yet-little explored area in soccer analytics, opponent scouting, and more specifically, we address the question of how to identify opponent’s defensive weaknesses and how to exploit them in order to gain a competitive advantage in the game.