Socioeconomic Patterns for Global Mangrove Cover Changes with Multivariate Analyses

Socioeconomic patterns beyond the land conversions of global mangrove cover changes were few discussed. This study integrated databases of global mangrove covers, i.e., a multi-database in 1980-2016 with a combination of FAO country-survey and the global mangrove watch, and a mangrove biome cover database in 2000-2012. Annual mangrove cover change (%) of each mangrove holding country or territory was incorporated with its socioeconomic indicators in the two periods to testify possible socioeconomic patterns beyond the mangrove deforestation. The socioeconomic indicators consisted of GDP per capita and urban population percentile, and aquacultural indicators (production per capita, sales value per capita, contribution to the national GDP, and product price). Results indicated that annual mangrove cover change was interactively driven by multi-factors of national economy measures, urbanization, and aquaculture, instead of aquacultural dominance or GDP per capita alone. The multi-factor driven patterns of annual mangrove changes differed geographically among the continents. Temporal change of aquacultural product price was significantly and positively correlated to annual mangrove cover change (increase), especially in Asia and Oceania for both the periods, suggesting positive feedbacks of mangrove conservation and restoration in the two continents although the price was used to a motivator of mangrove deforestation, such as currently in Africa. These findings preliminarily bridge the knowledge gap between land conversion losses and socioeconomics of global mangrove cover changes.