Too Anxious to Be Confident? A Panel Longitudinal Study Into the Interplay of Mathematics Anxiety and Metacognitive Monitoring in Arithmetic Achievement

Both mathematics anxiety and metacognitive monitoring have been identified as associated with or predictive of individual differences in arithmetic achievement in primary school children. Although there are various theoretical reasons for an association between mathematics anxiety and metacognitive monitoring, it is unclear at the empirical level how these variables are interrelated and whether their interrelation impacts their respective associations with arithmetic achievement. Gaining insight into this interplay is of utmost importance for the design of targeted interventions. We used a panel longitudinal design to investigate mathematics anxiety, metacognitive monitoring, and arithmetic achievement skills in 127 typically developing 7- to 8-year-olds (second grade) and followed them up 1 year later (in third grade). As such, participants were in the middle of an important developmental period for arithmetic, as well as mathematics anxiety and metacognitive monitoring. Our preregistered analyses showed that mathematics anxiety and metacognitive monitoring were correlated concurrently and longitudinally. Early mathematics anxiety predicted later metacognitive monitoring, but not vice versa. However, this association was mediated by arithmetic achievement. Further, the association between early mathematics anxiety and later arithmetic achievement was mediated by metacognitive monitoring. The association between arithmetic achievement and metacognitive monitoring, on the other hand, was unique and specific, without mediation of mathematics anxiety. Arithmetic achievement was found to be a unique, powerful predictor over developmental time of both mathematics anxiety and metacognitive monitoring, over and above their respective autoregressive effects. These results emphasize the importance of arithmetic achievement in the development of mathematics anxiety, metacognitive monitoring, and their interrelations. Educational Impact and Implications Statement What underlies the development of arithmetic achievement in primary school? Whether a child feels anxious when confronted with math, or mathematics anxiety, as well as a child's ability to assess its own performance, or metacognitive monitoring, both predict how well children perform in arithmetic. Until now, it remained unclear if there is an association between feeling anxious and assessing your own performance, and whether this association impacts the arithmetic performance of the child. The current study reveals interrelations between mathematics anxiety, metacognitive monitoring, and arithmetic achievement in children from second to third grade. Our data reveal that the more anxious children are, the worse their own assessment of their performance is. This association between mathematics anxiety and metacognitive monitoring is likely explained by the arithmetic achievement of these children. Children who are better in arithmetic are less likely to be anxious and are better in assessing their own performance. A child's ability to monitor its performance rather than its math anxiety predicts a child's later arithmetic achievement. This study emphasizes the importance of arithmetic achievement itself in the development of mathematics anxiety and metacognitive monitoring skills. These findings are relevant for the design of targeted educational interventions, as learning arithmetic involves a complex interplay of diverse (meta)cognitive and affective processes.