Analysing the spatio-temporal diffusion of economic change – advanced statistical approach and exemplary application

This article presents a spatio-temporal panel vector-autoregressive approach (SptpVAR) as an extended spatial econometric method for analysing spillover effects of regional economic change in time and space. The approach aims to extend the spatial dimension of SpVAR models by capturing the overall cross-regional spillover dynamics over time through additional estimations of effects into neighbouring regions and backward spillover to the source region. By showing how local economic dynamics trigger spillover dynamics in economically linked regions, the results are of particular interest to policy makers. To demonstrate the functioning of the SptpVAR approach, it is applied to 361 German regions using a regional growth model and a regional panel data set in the time-period 2000-2017 in an exemplary application.