Is waist-to-height ratio the best predictive indicator of cardiovascular disease incidence in hypertensive adults? A cohort study

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) brings high mortality and economic burden to patients, especially in rural areas. Simple, low-cost abdominal adiposity measures may help identify individuals with increased CVD risk. It is unclear that which obesity indices is the best to predict CVD in hypertensive people. Methods Northeast China Rural Cardiovascular Health Study (NCRCHS) is a prospective cohort study in a general population in Northeast China. The study examined the cardiovascular health from 2013 to 2015, and follow-up captured the CVD incidence in 2018. Baseline waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip (WHR)and body mass index (BMI) were calculated and analyzed in relation to the CVD incidence. Results A total of 4244 hypertensive adults without pre-existing CVD at baseline were included in this analysis (age 35–92 years; 2108 men). Over a median follow-up of 4.66 years, a total of 290 CVD cases (6.83%) were documented during the follow-up. Baseline WHtR showed a significant positive association with CVD incidence, even after adjusting for age, sex, diabetes, drinking, smoking, SBP, DBP, Triglyceride, HDL-C, LDL-C, and TC (Hazard Ratios per SD of WHtR ranging from 1.03 to 1.31, p = 0.017). Reclassification and discrimination analyses indicated WHtR addition could improve the conventional model for predicting adverse outcomes within 4 years. Moreover, WHtR predicted the CVD incidence better than other obesity indices (BMI, WC, WHR). Conclusion These findings support a positive association between WHtR and CVD incidence in CVD-free hypertensive adults. WHtR can be used to predict CVD incidence in hypertensive adults.