Relationship Between Physiological/Anthropometric Profiles and Future NHL Status Among Division I Collegiate Ice Hockey Players

Measurement of physiologic and anthropometric variables can be conducted to assess training progress and to estimate an athlete’s potential to perform at an elite level. However, the use of such measures for predicting ice hockey performance at the professional level has resulted in equivocal findings and to our knowledge, has not been assessed in collegiate ice hockey players. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to determine if the results of a discontinuous graded exercise test and selected anthropometric measures could predict a collegiate ice hockey player’s likelihood of playing professionally in the NHL. METHODS: Physiologic and anthropometric player profiles were obtained through yearly preseason fitness testing of a NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey team from 1980 through 2015. Players participated in a discontinuous treadmill graded exercise test to volitional exhaustion, consisting of 3 min run stages and 90 sec rest stages. Aerobic capacity was measured (indirect calorimetry) and total test time (including treadmill stage completed) was recorded. Height, weight, and %fat were also measured for each athlete. Athletes who later played at least one game in the NHL (n=55) were compared to non-NHL athletes (n=190) to determine if any outcome variables of interest predicted their NHL status. Binary logistic regression was performed, and Odds Ratios (OR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were calculated for each variable. RESULTS: Average values for variables of interest were similar in future NHL vs non-NHL players across 36 years: height (182.0±4.9 vs 181.5±6.1 cm), weight (83.8±5.3 vs 83.6±7.2 kg), body fat (11.2±2.9 vs 12.5±3.1 %), BMI (25.3±1.5 vs 25.3±1.6 kg/m 2 ), VO2max (59.0±4.1 vs 58.0±4.0 ml/kg/min), completing treadmill stage 5 (45% vs 40%), and year of last college season (1994 vs 1998). Entering all variables into the logistic model showed that the only significant predictors of achieving NHL status were %fat and playing year (OR=1.19; CI=1.06, 1.33). CONCLUSIONS: According to our findings, players with the lowest %fat values and earlier careers were 19% more likely to play in the NHL. These NCAA Division I players’ physiologic profiles and overall size are very similar; therefore, NHL success may be more influenced by other factors such as player skill, other fitness variables, and mental focus.