Correlated Damage Probabilities of Bridges In Seismic Risk Assessment of Transportation Networks

This paper aims to identify and use a logistic regression approach to model the spatial correlation of damage probabilities in expanded transportation networks. This paper uses Bayesian theory and the multinomial logistic model to analyze the different damage states and damage probabilities of bridges by considering the damage correlation. The correlation of the damage probabilities is considered both in different bridges of a network and in the different damage states of each bridge. The correlation model of the damage probabilities is considered in the seismic assessment of a part of the Tehran transportation network with 26 bridges. Moreover, the extra daily traffic time (EDTT) is selected as an operational parameter of the transportation network, and the shortest path algorithm is considered to select the path between two nodes. The results show that including the correlation of the damage probabilities decreases the travel time of the selected network. The average decreasing in the correlated case compared to the uncorrelated case, using two selected EDTT models are 53% and 71%, respectively.