Smoking-dependent expression alterations in nasal epithelium reveal immune impairment linked to germline variation and lung cancer risk

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death in the world. In contrast to many other cancers, a direct connection to lifestyle risk in the form of cigarette smoke has long been established. More than 50% of all smoking-related lung cancers occur in former smokers, often many years after smoking cessation. Despite extensive research, the molecular processes for persistent lung cancer risk are unclear. CT screening of current and former smokers has been shown to reduce lung cancer mortality by up to 26%. To examine whether clinical risk stratification can be improved upon by the addition of genetic data, and to explore the mechanisms of the persisting risk in former smokers, we have analyzed transcriptomic data from accessible airway tissues of 487 subjects. We developed a model to assess smoking associated gene expression changes and their reversibility after smoking is stopped, in both healthy subjects and clinic patients. We find persistent smoking-associated immune alterations to be a hallmark of the clinic patients. Integrating previous GWAS data using a transcriptional network approach, we demonstrate that the same immune and interferon related pathways are strongly enriched for genes linked to known genetic risk factors, demonstrating a causal relationship between immune alteration and lung cancer risk. Finally, we used accessible airway transcriptomic data to derive a non-invasive lung cancer risk classifier. Our results provide initial evidence for germline-mediated personalised smoke injury response and risk in the general population, with potential implications for managing long-term lung cancer incidence and mortality.