Progression from human papillomavirus (HPV) infection to cervical lesion or clearance in women (18-25 years): Natural history study in the control arm subjects of AS04-HPV-16/18 vaccine efficacy study in China between 2008 and 2016

Background Cervical cancer is the third most frequent cancer in Chinese women aged 15-44 years old. Human papillomavirus (HPV) is recognized as the main etiologic agent of cervical carcinomas. This study aims to better understand the natural history of HPV infections in Chinese women aged 18-25 years. Research Design and Methods Data from 3,025 control arm women (AS04-HPV-16/18 vaccine trial) were analyzed to assess the probability of progression or clearance from a 6-month persistent infection (6MPI) to a cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or greater (CIN2+), and the association with clinical determinants. Data were analyzed using univariate and multivariable Cox models. Results A total of 1,324 women with 3,814 HPV infections were included, and 65.7% of the women had at least one 6MPI. Among those 6MPI, 5.0% progressed to CIN2+, while 61.0% cleared within 6 months. The risk of progression from 6MPI to CIN2+ was substantially higher for oncogenic versus non-oncogenic HPV types. Conclusions Oncogenic HPV infections showed lower clearance and higher risk to progress to CIN2 +. These findings observed in a population of Chinese women, confirmed previous findings from multinational studies.