Development and Validation of Web-Based Tool to Predict Lamina Propria Fibrosis in Eosinophilic Esophagitis

INTRODUCTION: Approximately half of esophageal biopsies from patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) contain inadequate lamina propria, making it impossible to determine the lamina propria fibrosis (LPF). This study aimed to develop and validate a web-based tool to predict LPF in esophageal biopsies with inadequate lamina propria. METHODS: Prospectively collected demographic and clinical data and scores for 7 relevant EoE histology scoring system epithelial features from patients with EoE participating in the Consortium of Eosinophilic Gastrointestinal Disease Researchers observational study were used to build the models. Using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method, variables strongly associated with LPF were identified. Logistic regression was used to develop models to predict grade and stage of LPF. The grade model was validated using an independent data set. RESULTS: Of 284 patients in the discovery data set, median age (quartiles) was 16 (8-31) years, 68.7% were male patients, and 93.4% were White. Age of the patient, basal zone hyperplasia, dyskeratotic epithelial cells, and surface epithelial alteration were associated with presence of LPF. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the grade model was 0.84 (95% confidence interval: 0.80-0.89) and for stage model was 0.79 (95% confidence interval: 0.74-0.84). Our grade model had 82% accuracy in predicting the presence of LPF in an external validation data set. DISCUSSION: We developed parsimonious models (grade and stage) to predict presence of LPF in esophageal biopsies with inadequate lamina propria and validated our grade model. Our predictive models can be easily used in the clinical setting to include LPF in clinical decisions and determine its effect on treatment outcomes.