Radiomic signatures of posterior fossa ependymoma: Molecular subgroups and risk profiles

Background The risk profile for posterior fossa ependymoma (EP) depends on surgical and molecular status [Group A (PFA) versus Group B (PFB)]. While subtotal tumor resection is known to confer worse prognosis, MRI-based EP risk-profiling is unexplored. We aimed to apply machine learning strategies to link MRI-based biomarkers of high-risk EP and also to distinguish PFA from PFB. Methods We extracted 1800 quantitative features from presurgical T2-weighted (T2-MRI) and gadolinium-enhanced T1-weighted (T1-MRI) imaging of 157 EP patients. We implemented nested cross-validation to identify features for risk score calculations and apply a Cox model for survival analysis. We conducted additional feature selection for PFA versus PFB and examined performance across three candidate classifiers. Results For all EP patients with GTR, we identified four T2-MRI-based features and stratified patients into high- and low-risk groups, with 5-year overall survival rates of 62% and 100%, respectively (P < .0001). Among presumed PFA patients with GTR, four T1-MRI and five T2-MRI features predicted divergence of high- and low-risk groups, with 5-year overall survival rates of 62.7% and 96.7%, respectively (P = .002). T1-MRI-based features showed the best performance distinguishing PFA from PFB with an AUC of 0.86. Conclusions We present machine learning strategies to identify MRI phenotypes that distinguish PFA from PFB, as well as high- and low-risk PFA. We also describe quantitative image predictors of aggressive EP tumors that might assist risk-profiling after surgery. Future studies could examine translating radiomics as an adjunct to EP risk assessment when considering therapy strategies or trial candidacy.