Social reform as a path to political leadership: A dynamic model

•Political leader aims to replace current regime by establishing credibility among citizens whose participation affects success of a movement.•The leader’s ability and intentions are unknown to the regime and citizens.•When the true objective of the leader is unknown should the regime combat a harmless movement? What should be it’s choice of movement?•We show that political leader masquerades and conducts harmless non-political movement for intermediate ranges of perceived ability.•Government’s willingness to combat a harmless movement depends upon cost, perception about leader’s intentions and relative average ability.