On the resilience of Australian public universities: why our institutions may fail unless vice-chancellors rethink broken commercial business models

COVID-19-related public health measures have severely impacted the Australian higher education system (AHES). This paper examines the resilience of the AHES, particularly its past reliance on onshore international students to generate revenue that cross-subsidises operational and research expenses. By our measure, ten universities are at risk of financial default. With a different approach on the part of the Government and university leadership, surplus monies could have contributed to building a more resilient AHES. Our findings correct widely held misconceptions about the state of the AHES and aim to provide valuable learnings to individual universities and the sector more broadly.