The role of groundwater in loading of nutrients to a restricted bay in a Precambrian Shield lake Part 2. – Numerical modeling

Previous modeling of hydrologic and nutrient budgets of lakes in Precambrian Shield regions have generally ignored groundwater as a source of water and supplier or sink of nutrients. This paper and its companion (Part 1) address this science gap by probing the role of groundwater in the nutrient balance for a restricted bay of a Precambrian Shield lake (Lake of the Woods) that experienced extensive shoreline development in the 1990s. Based on field data (Part 1), we applied a 3D reactive transport model (FEFLOW) to simulate the fate of nutrients in a cottage septic plume in groundwater and seepage into the bay. Corresponding simulations are for chloride and septic tracers in the plume, and 1D modeling of the mass balance of one septic tracer (acesulfame) in the bay. Our results suggest that, before they reach the lake, significant portions of the septic plume contaminants are attenuated by various processes, including uptake by transpiring plants. Extrapolating, we estimate that, for annual fluxes to the bay, groundwater seepage contributes ~1–3% of the phosphorus (P) and ~2–5% of the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN). The results suggest that these groundwater nutrient fluxes to the bay are derived mainly from natural background sources. In contrast, cottage septic plumes contribute a quarter of the groundwater flux of DIN to Poplar Bay, while the septic contribution of P to the bay is negligible. We estimate that the largest sources of P and DIN fluxes to Poplar Bay are influx from the open lake and atmospheric deposition.