Verifying Predictions Of Statistical Models To Define The Size And Shape Of Marine Special Protection Areas For Foraging Seabirds (Terns)

Potential marine Special Protection Areas (pSPAs) have been identified to protect the marine foraging areas of breeding terns in the United Kingdom. Public consultation revealed widespread support for the pSPAs. However, there was scepticism amongst some respondents about the reliability of the predictions of the habitat association models on which the size and shape of the pSPAs are based. This suggested an outstanding need to verify the models' predictions with independent empirical sightings data. Here we synthesise the findings of several surveys of tern activity, conducted for and by various organisations, at eight pSPAs. This body of work confirms the model-predicted presence of foraging terns at the alongshore and seaward boundaries of many marine pSPAs and also their presence in places of intense human activity such as marinas and docks. These findings support the decision to adopt a model-based approach to identify the important foraging areas of breeding larger terns to include within marine SPAs.