Technical Analysis of Barriers to Raising the Power Delivery Ceiling in Nigeria

On December 18th 2017, an all-time high level of power delivery of 5.2GW was achieved in Nigeria, providing a new data-point on the proven physical wheeling capability of the system and prompting discussion on how to exceed the record. This paper presents statistical analysis based on the first-ever investigation of hourly, spatially disaggregated load and generation data from Nigeria over a full year, and load flow analysis based on the record performance day. The paper also explains relevant features of the local power sector. The analysis quantifies how performance has improved in 2017, but also how differing operational choices of the parties involved, and physical distribution system technical limitations tend to limit the increase of delivered energy. Physical transmission system limits suggest a regional voltage limit would be reached at 5.45GW, but that by changing distributed power, the total load could be extended to 5.7GW before thermal limits are reached on some infrastructure.