Using differences in abiotic factors between seed origin and common garden sites to predict performance of Pacific madrone (Arbutus menziesii Pursh)

•Transfer distance and frost-free period correlate to madrone growth and mortality.•Summer precipitation is only in best models of mortality at driest or wettest sites.•Small-scale differences in nearby common garden sites can greatly shift results.•Bud growth is earlier for lower latitude/elevation, drier, and colder seed sources.•Bud elongation date only correlates well to growth/mortality at a subset of sites.