Dynamics of the Causes Of Crime: a Life-Course Application of Situational Action Theory for the Transition from Adolescence to Adulthood

Purpose According to the Developmental Ecological Action Model (DEA) of the situational action theory (SAT), changes in crime rates over the life-course are explained through personal (moral) maturation and socio-ecological selection. This assumption is empirically tested by comparing results for the conditioning effect of the principle of moral correspondence (as an essential part of SAT’s perception-choice process) on crime rates for the transition from adolescence to adulthood. Methods Comparing two waves of a German longitudinal study (CrimoC, 17 and 26 years old, n = 1738), a series of logistic and multinomial logistic regressions and ensuing estimated transition probabilities capture the cross-sectional but also developmental processes involved. Additionally, the CrimoC study offers a differential analysis of offending scales, separating offenses into youth and adult crimes. Results The principle’s conditioning effect on crime could be replicated at both times. We can observe a general trend of individual transitions, which correspond to predicted personal maturation and socio-ecological selection. The transitions correlate with the expected reduction in crime rates over time. Males and females show comparable results. The separation into different offending scales yielded tentative insights. Conclusion We found stability in the mechanisms leading to crime as proffered by SAT and DEA across time. Personal (moral) maturation and socio-ecological selection are likely to be the driving forces behind reducing crime in adulthood. Future research needs to explain in detail how life-course events influence these factors. Considering adult crimes in the analysis is a promising endeavor that warrants further investigation.