Predicted Effects Of Chilean Pension Reform Application In The Czech Republic

The article analyzes the possible impacts of the fully-funded (FF) pension system (the so-called Chilean model), which was introduced in the Czech Republic in 2012, on future pensions of contributors to the system and on state expenditures related to the pension system reform. The author performed calculations for 3 model examples of individuals who would participate solely in the FF and also of individuals who would contribute to both the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) and the FF during their lives. The calculations in all model examples were made for 4 average real annual interest rates and for 4 standardised income levels. The income replacement rates of the examined individuals were compared with the existing PAYG and with a hypothetical balanced PAYG. The aim was to determine the minimum rate of the pension funds' appreciation from which the transition to the FF would be profitable for all examined individuals. The article also attempts to identify the duration of the transition period, the moment after which the FF would become budget-neutral, and the approximate cost of the transition process.