Forecasting Model Sifting And Bus Load Forecast Based On Forecasting Availability And Grey Theory

Considering the specific characteristics of bus load, a new method of model sifting and forecast combination is proposed based on the grey theory and forecasting availability. Grey relation grade is used to sift the various models, and forecasting availability is introduced to reflect the validity of forecast models. Combined with the thinking of virtual forecasting, the GM(1,1) forecast model is applied to evaluate the forecasting availability value of each model, thus to calculate the weight coefficient and build the combined model.