Impact Of Air Service On High-Speed Railway Passenger Flow

This paper focuses on studying the quantitative impact of air services on passenger flow of high-speed railway (HSR) using data from China. In this paper, we studied if the air services have an impact on the HSR passenger flow, and what kind of impact it is using the dataset collected in China. In order to investigate the correlation between HSR passengers flow and air services, a censored regression model is used in this paper, which is suitable for the problem of which the dependent variable is limited and continuous. And factors related to the air services, the socioeconomic level and the spatial characteristics of OD pairs (from the origin to the destination) are selected. Based on a dataset covering 208 city-pairs in China, a case study is implemented. The results show that the travel time ratio has the greatest contribution to for HSR passenger flow, followed by the price ratio and speed ratio. Secondly, the connectivity of the high-speed railway has great impact on the passenger flow, and the less the number of trains crosses the lines, the more passengers are. Thirdly, the impact of travel time ratio on HSR passenger increases as the distance increasing. And finally, t the sensitivity of travel time ratio increases with the increase of the distance. This study can provide guidance for passenger flow forecasting and railway operation management.