Potential Effects Of Global Warming On The Spatial Distribution And Productivity Of Five Tree Species Used In The Wood Energy Supply Chain In France For 2050

The development of wood biomass energy systems, in order to produce heat and/or electricity, knows a significant increase since the end of the 90's in France, with more 6.000 power plants and heating plants developed currently. Because these collective and industrial systems are built for a minimal duration of 30 years, it is relevant to assess the availability of the wood resource according to the potential impacts of global warming on fire tree species mainly used in such supply chain. The assessment of the potential distribution of these trees in 2050, by using the IPCC RCP6.0 scenario, shows an average decrease of 22% of the plots where these species should grow according to the current situation. The results also point that mountain areas would maintain high probability of development of the five tree species. The assessment of the Net Primary Productivity (NPP) underlines a potential decrease for 93% of the plots in 2050, and an increase of this parameter in mountain areas. According to these assumption, the proposed ecosystem-based methodology can be considered as a prospective approach to support decisions for the development of the wood energy supply chain.