Subjective Memory Concerns, Poor Vascular Health, and Male Sex Predict Exacerbated Memory Decline Trajectories: An Integrative Data-Driven Class and Prediction Analysis

Objective: Subjective memory decline (SMD) has been identified as a potential early marker of nonnormal and accelerated cognitive decline. We performed data-driven analyses that integrated trajectory classification with prediction modeling to test declining trajectory class prediction by SMD facets, pulse pressure (PP; i.e., a robust proxy for vascular health), and sex. Method: The longitudinal design featured memory trajectories across a 40-year band (55-95 years) of nondemented aging (N = 580; M (age) = 70.2 years; 65% female) from the Victoria Longitudinal Study. First, latent class growth analyses identified distinct classes of memory trajectories. Second, we used the three-step method (R3STEP) to predict membership in the declining memory classes using six measures: memory complaints, memory concerns, memory compensation, memory self-efficacy, PP, and sex. Results: First, we identified four classes of memory aging trajectories: (a) stable memory aging (STABLE), (b) typical memory aging (TYPICAL), (c) slowly declining memory aging (SLOW), and (d) rapidly declining memory aging (RAPID). Second, more memory concerns predicted membership in the SLOW and RAPID classes. Higher PP predicted membership in the SLOW class. Male sex predicted membership in the declining (TYPICAL, SLOW, RAPID) classes. Conclusion: Among SMD facets, memory concerns represent the most severe degree of apprehension about subjectively experienced memory losses. The present integrative data-driven analysis indicated that such concerns predicted membership in declining memory trajectory classes in addition to worse vascular health (higher PP) and sex (male). In nondemented aging, concerns about increasing memory failures may be veridical indicators of memory loss, especially when coupled with vascular comorbidity and being male.