Development of a preoperative risk score predicting allogeneic red blood cell transfusion in children undergoing spinal fusion

Background Children undergoing spinal fusion often receive blood products. The goal of this study was to develop a preoperative score to help physicians identify those who are at risk of allogeneic red blood cell (RBC) transfusion. Study design and methods This retrospective study of children undergoing spinal fusion in the ACS-NSQIP Pediatric database (2016-2019) aimed at identifying risk factors associated with allogeneic RBC transfusion. Univariable logistic regression and multivariable logistic regression were performed using preoperative patient characteristics and aided in the creation of a simplified scoring system. Results Out of 13,929 total patients, 2990 (21.5%) were transfused. We created a risk score based on 10 independent predictors of transfusion: age, sex, race, weight < 3rd percentile, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification, cardiac risk factors, hematologic disease, preoperative anemia, deformity type, and number of spinal levels to be fused. Patients in both the training and testing cohorts were assigned a score ranging from 0 (lowest risk) to 21 (highest risk). The developed transfusion risk score showed 77% accuracy in distinguishing patients who did not receive a transfusion during or soon after surgery (AUROC 0.7736 [95% CI, 0.7619-0.7852]) in the training cohort and 77% accuracy (AUROC 0.7732 [95% CI, 0.7554-0.7910]) in the testing cohort. Discussion Our score, based on routinely available preoperative data, accurately estimates the risk of allogeneic RBC transfusion in pediatric patients undergoing spinal fusion. Future studies will inform whether patient blood management interventions targeted to high-risk patients can help reduce the need for transfusion and improve outcomes.