Tracing TB: Are there predictors for active TB disease in patients with Xpert Ultra trace results?

Objectives The Xpert MTB/Rif Ultra (Xpert Ultra; Cepheid, USA) has increased sensitivity compared with its predecessor (Gene Xpert), due to the addition of multicopy amplification targets and a novel trace call. The World Health Organization suggests that tuberculosis (TB) treatment should be initiated in HIV, paediatric, and extra-pulmonary TB patients with trace results. However, other factors such as previous TB disease may complicate the interpretation of trace results in high-burden TB settings. This study aimed to clarify the positive predictors for active TB disease in patients with trace results and to investigate if previous TB disease influences TB culture positivity. Methods A retrospective descriptive study was performed on 290 patients with trace results, to determine what the positive predictors for active TB are by comparing clinical factors to TB culture. Results The key findings of this study were that extra-pulmonary TB samples (OR, 2.7; p=0.012), no previous TB disease (OR, 4.5; p=0.001) and symptoms suggestive of TB (OR, 6.4; p<0.001) are independent predictors for active TB disease. Conclusion This study found readily available clinical predictors that can aid clinicians with TB management decisions in patients with trace results.