Quantitative microbial risk assessment associated with ready-to-eat salads following the application of farmyard manure and slurry or anaerobic digestate to arable lands.

Farmyard manure and slurry (FYM&S) and anaerobic digestate are potentially valuable soil conditioners providing important nutrients for plant development and growth. However, these organic fertilisers may pose a microbial health risk to humans. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was developed to investigate the potential human exposure to pathogens following the application of FYM&S and digestate to agricultural land. The farm-to-fork probabilistic model investigated the fate of microbial indicators (total coliforms and enterococci) and foodborne pathogens in the soil with potential contamination of ready-to-eat salads (RTEs) at the point of human consumption. The processes examined included pathogen inactivation during mesophilic anaerobic digestion (M-AD), post-AD pasteurisation, storage, dilution while spreading, decay in soil, post-harvest washing processes, and finally, the potential growth of the pathogen during refrigeration/storage at the retail level in the Irish context. The QMRA highlighted a very low annual probability of risk (Pannual) due to Clostridium perfringens, norovirus, and Salmonella Newport across all scenarios. Mycobacterium avium may result in a very high mean Pannual for the application of raw FYM&S, while Cryptosporidium parvum and pathogenic E. coli showed high Pannual, and Listeria monocytogenes displayed moderate Pannual for raw FYM&S application. The use of AD reduces this risk; however, pasteurisation reduces the Pannual to an even greater extent posing a very low risk. An overall sensitivity analysis revealed that mesophilic-AD's inactivation effect is the most sensitive parameter of the QMRA, followed by storage and the decay on the field (all negatively correlated to risk estimate). The information generated from this model can help to inform guidelines for policymakers on the maximum permissible indicator or pathogen contamination levels in the digestate. The QMRA can also provide the AD industry with a safety assessment of pathogenic organisms resulting from the digestion of FYM&S.