The clinical course of neck pain: Are trajectory patterns stable over a 1-year period?

Background Recent studies with data-driven approaches have established common pain trajectories. It is uncertain whether these trajectory patterns are consistent over time, and if a shorter measurement period will provide accurate trajectories. Methods We included 1,124 patients with non-specific neck pain in chiropractic practice. We classified patients into pre-defined trajectory patterns in each of four quarters of the follow-up year (persistent, episodic, and recovery) based on measures of pain intensity and frequency from weekly SMS. We explored the shifts between patterns and compared patients with stable and shifting patterns on baseline characteristics and clinical findings. Results 785 (70%) patients were in the same pattern in 1st and 4th quarters. Patients with episodic pattern in the 1st quarter shifted to other patterns more frequently than patients in the other patterns. A stable persistent pattern was associated with reduced function and higher scores on psychosocial factors. There was a decreased frequency of patients classified as persistent pattern (75% to 63%) and an increase of patients in recovery pattern (4% to 15%) throughout the four quarters. The frequency of patients classified as episodic remained relatively stable (21% to 24%). Conclusions We found an overall stability of the persistent pattern, and that episodic patterns have more potential for shifts. Shifts mostly occurred between patterns closest in pain variation. The deviation in pattern distribution compared with previous studies suggests that the duration of measurement periods has an impact on the results of the classification. Significance Having persistent pain and having very minor pain is relatively stable over one year, while episodic pain has more potential for shifts. The duration of measurement periods appears to have an impact on the results of the classification. The given criteria resulted in a reduced frequency of episodic pattern due to shorter measurement periods. Our findings contribute to improved understanding and predicting NP using a combination of patient characteristics and trajectory patterns.