Differential role of residual metabolic tumor volume in inoperable stage III NSCLC after chemoradiotherapy ± immune checkpoint inhibition

Background The PET-derived metabolic tumor volume (MTV) is an independent prognosticator in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. We analyzed the prognostic value of residual MTV (rMTV) after completion of chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in inoperable stage III NSCLC patients with and without immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI). Methods Fifty-six inoperable stage III NSCLC patients (16 female, median 65.0 years) underwent 18 F-FDG PET/CT after completion of standard CRT. rMTV was delineated on 18 F-FDG PET/CT using a standard threshold (liver SUV mean + 2 × standard deviation). 21/56 patients underwent additional ICI (CRT-IO, 21/56 patients) thereafter. Patients were divided in volumetric subgroups using median split dichotomization (MTV ≤ 4.3 ml vs. > 4.3 ml). rMTV, clinical features, and ICI-application were correlated with clinical outcome parameters (progression-free survival (PFS), local PFS (LPFS), and overall survival (OS). Results Overall, median follow-up was 52.0 months. Smaller rMTV was associated with longer median PFS (29.3 vs. 10.5 months, p = 0.015), LPFS (49.9 vs. 13.5 months, p = 0.001), and OS (63.0 vs. 23.0 months, p = 0.003). CRT-IO patients compared to CRT patients showed significantly longer median PFS (29.3 vs. 11.2 months, p = 0.034), LPFS (median not reached vs. 14.0 months, p = 0.016), and OS (median not reached vs. 25.2 months, p = 0.007). In the CRT subgroup, smaller rMTV was associated with longer median PFS (33.5 vs. 8.6 months, p = 0.001), LPFS (49.9 vs. 10.1 months, p = 0.001), and OS (63.0 vs. 16.3 months, p = 0.004). In the CRT-IO subgroup, neither PFS, LPFS, nor OS were associated with MTV ( p > 0.05 each). The findings were confirmed in subsequent multivariate analyses. Conclusion In stage III NSCLC, smaller rMTV is highly associated with superior clinical outcome, especially in patients undergoing CRT without ICI. Patients with CRT-IO show significantly improved outcome compared to CRT patients. Of note, clinical outcome in CRT-IO patients is independent of residual MTV. Hence, even patients with large rMTV might profit from ICI despite extensive tumor load.