Relative importance of metabolic syndrome components for developing gestational diabetes

Purpose To assess the independent and joint contribution of the individual components of metabolic syndrome, and known risk factors for gestational diabetes (GDM), on risk of GDM. Methods Two thousand nine hundred and fifteen women from Australia and New Zealand, who participated in The Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints Study (SCOPE), were included. Using the SCOPE clinical data set and biomarkers obtained at 14–16 weeks’ gestation, a logistic regression model was fitted to the binary outcome GDM, with individual metabolic syndrome components (waist circumference, blood pressure, glucose, HDL-C, triglycerides), recruitment site, and other established factors associated with GDM. Hierarchical partitioning was used to assess the relative contribution of each variable. Results Of the 2915 women, 103 women (3.5%) developed GDM. The deviance explained by the logistic regression model containing all variables was 18.65% and the AUC was 0.809. Seventy percent of the independent effect was accounted for by metabolic syndrome components. The highest independent relative contribution to GDM was circulating triglycerides (17 ± 3%), followed by waist circumference (13 ± 3%). Glucose and maternal BMI contributed 12 ± 2% and 12 ± 3%, respectively. The remaining factors had an independent relative contribution of < 10%. Conclusion Triglyceride concentrations had the highest independent relative importance for risk of GDM. Increased focus for lowering triglycerides as an important risk factor for GDM is warranted.