The role of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in predicting mortality and morbidity in people with congenital heart disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Aims The role of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in people with congenital heart disease (ConHD) is unknown. A systematic review with meta-analysis was conducted to report the associations between CPET parameters and MACE in people with ConHD. Methods and results Electronic databases were systematically searched on 30 April 2020 for eligible publications. Two authors independently screened publications for inclusion, extracted study data, and performed risk of bias assessment. Primary meta-analysis pooled univariate hazard ratios across studies. A total of 34 studies (18 335 participants; 26.2 +/- 10.1 years; 54% +/- 16% male) were pooled into a meta-analysis. More than 20 different CPET prognostic factors were reported across 6 ConHD types. Of the 34 studies included in the meta-analysis, 10 (29%), 23 (68%), and 1 (3%) were judged as a low, medium, and high risk of bias, respectively. Primary univariate meta-analysis showed consistent evidence that improved peak and submaximal CPET measures are associated with a reduce risk of MACE. This association was supported by a secondary meta-analysis of multivariate estimates and individual studies that could not be numerically pooled. Conclusion Various maximal and submaximal CPET measures are prognostic of MACE across a variety of ConHD diagnoses. Further well-conducted prospective multicentre cohort studies are needed to confirm these findings.