A mathematical model for predicting the number of transferable blastocysts in next-generation sequencing-based preimplantation genetic testing

Purpose To investigate the clinical factors that could be used predict the number of transferable blastocysts in preimplantation genetic testing (PGT) cycles based on next-generation sequencing (NGS) and formed form a mathematical model to predict the chance likelihood of obtaining one transferable blastocyst, which is helpful for genetic counseling. Methods This retrospective study enrolled couples undergoing PGT cycles for chromosomal structural rearrangement (PGT-SR, n = 363, 202 with reciprocal translocation carriers, 131 with Robertsonian translocation carriers, 30 with inversion carriers), monogenic diseases (PGT-M, n = 47), and for Aneuploidies (PGT-A, n = 132) from January 2015 to October 2018. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was used to identify the factors relevant for obtaining at least one transferable blastocyst. The factors that predict the number of biopsied blastocysts were further analyzed. Results The transferable blastocyst rates were 29.94, 41.99, 49.09, 41.42, and 44.37% in the reciprocal translocation carrier, Robertsonian translocation carrier, inversion carrier, PGT-M, and PGT-A cycles, respectively. The number of transferable blastocysts in these cycles were 0.3004 × the number of biopsied blastocysts (NBB) − 0.0031, 0.4063 × NBB + 0.0460, 0.5762 × NBB − 0.3128, 0.3611 × NBB + 0.1910, and 0.4831 × NBB − 0.0970, respectively. Furthermore, the number of MII oocytes and female age were clinical predictors of NBB in reciprocal translocation and PGT-A couples, while the number of MII oocytes was the only clinical predictor in Robertsonian translocation carriers, inversion carriers, and PGT-M couples. Conclusions The number of biopsied blastocysts was the only clinical predictor of the ability to obtain a transferable blastocyst in PGT cycles; therefore, for clinical practice, theoretically the minimum numbers of biopsied blastocysts is 4 in reciprocal translocation carrier and 3 in couples undergoing PGT for other reasons. The number of MII oocytes and female age were clinical predictors of the number of biopsied blastocysts. With the mathematical models in our study as a reference, in clinical practice, clinicians will be able to conduct a more targeted genetic consultation for different kinds of PGT patients.