Aggregation distributions across stand age in provenances of Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook

•The highest total variability was explained by the genotype effect (G) in the whole development stage of Chinese fir, the influence of genotype increased through time.•The risk of early selection was verified from the perspective of mature forest, and 70% of excellent provenances would be missed in the young forest stage (5-year-old).•The provenances with of excellent productivity Chinese fir showed aggregation distribution at mature forest stage.