Subjective assessment of complexity and prognosis after pulmonary vein isolation as significant predictor for procedural success

Purpose Subjective estimation of recurrence after atrial fibrillation ablation is an important tool in clinical use. The aim of this study is to evaluate (1) if the subjective complexity of an atrial fibrillation ablation procedure is correlated with rhythm stability and (2) if the subjective prognosis of the operator has a predictive value. Methods We prospectively enrolled patients admitted for ablation of atrial fibrillation. Two scores were given immediately after the procedure by the operator: the complexity and the prognosis scores. With routine follow-ups, we tried to evaluate the correlation between the subjective scores and measured outcome. Results The study population included 611 patients (63 ± 10 years, 37% females, 61% persistent AF). During follow-up (FU) (median 24, IQR 7–36 months), recurrences occurred in 44% patients. Both scores (prognosis and complexity) correlated significantly with age, persistent AF, LA diameter, procedural characteristics, and recurrences. On multivariable analysis, complexity (OR 1.304, 95%CI 1.016–1.675, p = 0.037) and prognosis (OR 1.443, 95%CI 1.080–1.982, p = 0.013) scores remained significant predictors for arrhythmia recurrences. On ROC analysis, both scores showed significant predictive value for rhythm outcomes after catheter ablation (AUC 0.599 and 0.613, both p < 0.001 for complexity and prognosis scores, respectively). Conclusions Complexity and prognosis scores are significant predictors for arrhythmia recurrences after AF catheter ablations and even independent when competing with simple risk factors.