Understanding Narrative-Driven Intergroup Conflict Dynamics Using Computational Cognitive Coherence Maps

Humans make sense of the world through narratives. Therefore, adversaries often use conflict-sustaining narratives to maintain dominance and delegitimize the actions of the rivals. To better understand narratives' role and influence in such intractable conflicts, a computational framework and methodology are introduced. The computational cognitive model and its underlying inference mechanism allow analysts to simulate and analyze narratives in relation to opposing narratives. The ability to simulate the interaction of adversarial stories with a set of micronarratives shared by members of a group opens new avenues to counter conflict-sustaining narratives. The methodology and its application to a concrete conflict scenario demonstrate how to conduct simulation-driven exploratory analysis over a complex adaptive narrative space to discern how narratives are matched to unfolding events and how they can be used to facilitate favorable change.