A Novel Approach of Environment Impact Assessment and Emission Measurement on the Inter-city Transportation in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) of China using a Modified Gravity Model

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GD-HK-MO) also referred as Greater Bay Area (GBA), is a megalopolis, consisting of nine cities and two special administrative regions, i.e., Hong Kong and Macao in South China. GBA has a total population of approximately 71.2 million people representing about 5% of China's total population with a combined regional GDP at USD 1642 billion in 2018, i.e. about 12% of GDP for the whole mainland China. Hong Kong acting as a window of China, plays a critical role in contributing to the growth of the GDP. Given the enormous scale of this regional economy and increasing collaboration among these GBA cities, it is utmost important to design a novel environmental impact assessment and emission measurements of the cross-border transportation among Hong Kong and various GBA cities with the aim of proposing countermeasures on carbon emissions of vehicles in the transport and logistics sector of the GBA. In the study, two modified gravity models are designed by considering social, economic, and other variables affecting the carbon emission of vehicles travelling within and across cities in the GBA. Further study will be pursued using decomposition analysis based on the modified gravity model to analyse the crucial contributors and determinants of carbon emission among the GBA cities.