Impact of COVID-19 attributable deaths on Longevity, Premature Mortality and DALY: Estimates of USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden

Background: In a short span of four months, the COVID-19 pandemic has added over 0.6 million deaths worldwide, which are untimely, premature and unwarranted. The USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden are four worst affected countries, accounting to over 40% of COVID-19 deaths globally. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of COVID-19 attributable deaths on longevity, years of potential life lost (YPLL) and disability adjusted life years (DALY) in USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden. Data and Methods: Data from United Nation Population Projection, Statista and centre for disease control and prevention were used in the analyses. Life expectancy, YPLL and DALY were estimated under four scenarios; no COVID-19 deaths, actual number of COVID-19 death as of 20 July, 2020 and anticipating COVID-19 death share of 6% and 10% respectively. Results: The COVID-19 attributable deaths have lowered the life expectancy by 0.6 years in USA, 0.5 years in Italy and Sweden and 0.1 years in Germany. The loss of YPLL was 1.59, 0.13, 0.26 and 0.02 million in USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden respectively. The DALY (per 1000 population) due to COVID19 was 5.4 in USA, 6.3 in Italy, 1.2 in Germany and 0.6 in Sweden. Compression in life expectancy and increase in YPLL and DALY may intensify further if death continues to soar. Conclusion: COVID-19 has a marked impact on mortality. Reduction in longevity premature mortality and loss of DALY is higher among elderly.