Strategies for hydrologic ensemble generation and calibration: On the merits of using model-based predictors

Anne-Laure Tiberi-Wadier,Nicole Goutal,Sophie Ricci,Philippe Sergent,Maxime Taillardat,François Bouttier,Céline Monteil

Journal of Hydrology（2021）

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摘要

•Realization of a Global Sensitivity Analysis of the MORDOR-TS hydrologic model.•Generation of Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts with model parameters uncertainty.•Merits of innovative application of QRF method to forecasted streamflows calibration.•Better ensemble skills are obtained when hydrology-related predictors are used.•Reconstruction of calibrated hydrologic time series as forcing for hydraulic simulation.

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关键词

Ensemble Prediction System,Global Sensitivity Analysis,Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast,Quantile Regression Forest,MORDOR-TS,Odet catchment

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