Building heating demand vs climate: Deep insights to achieve a novel heating stress index and climatic stress curves
Journal of Cleaner Production(2021)
摘要
This study offers deep insights into the link between climatic stress and building heating performance. Two representative Italian residential buildings – existing and newly-built, respectively – are investigated by predicting heating demand for 63 locations, covering all typical national climates. Two simulation software are used – i.e., TERMUS® and EnergyPlus –, to compare a standard semi steady-state approach with a more accurate dynamic one. The comparison enables to understand the influence of the climatic stress on different levels of building modeling/simulation. Notably, the semi steady approach can provide reliable outcomes (close to the dynamic one) for existing buildings in cold climates. Then, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the correlation between climatic parameters and yearly heating demand, showing that the heating degree day index does not provide a complete explanation of such demand. Indeed, it does not take into account latitude and/or solar radiation, whose influence is not negligible. Therefore, a novel heating stress index is proposed, including normalized heating degree day and latitude. Its expression is optimized through a Pareto approach to ensure the best fitting/regression of yearly heating demand for both building typologies. The achieved determination coefficient (R2) is 0.990 for the existing building, 0.995 for the newly-built one. Finally, climatic stress curves are achieved to predict heating demand and related running cost as a function of the proposed index, providing a user-friendly but reliable tool to forecast building heating needs.
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关键词
Building simulation,Heating demand,Climatic stress,Heating degree days,Heating stress index,Heating severity
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